Interim Report Q3/2026, 4 November 2026:
The following outlook information is based on materials published by the Confederation of Finnish Industries EK and Statistics Finland.
The development of the global economy has remained uncertain. The continued war in Iran has kept the prices of oil and gas high, which accelerates inflation and increases pressure to raise interest rates. During the early fall, equity markets have fluctuated considerably. Despite the high level of uncertainty, growth estimates for 2026 have become only slightly lower and the global economy is still expected to grow by approximately 3 percent. Among the major economic regions, the figures are the weakest in Europe, where growth is estimated to be about 1 percent this year.
The economic situation of Finnish companies remains weaker than average and varies clearly between industries. The outlook for the coming months is cautiously optimistic, while the weak demand remains the single biggest hindrance to growth. In October, the confidence indicator for retail trade decreased from its high level but is still above the long-term average. In the retail trade, the economic situation remains weaker than average. The growth in sales volumes is muted and continues to be constrained by subdued demand. However, sales expectations for the coming months have remained positive. Consumer confidence, which temporarily strengthened during the summer, weakened in September and fell clearly in October.
Consumers’ outlook concerning the current state of their personal finances and their development over the next year were at a very low level. Consumers considered the timing for purchasing durable goods to be even more unfavorable than before, their spending intentions fell to very low levels, and their views concerning unemployment have become bleaker. In addition, consumers’ expectations concerning the current state of the Finnish economy weakened and their outlook on the development of the economy over the next year were muted. Consumers’ estimates and outlook concerning inflation rose.
(Confederation of Finnish Industries EK: Business Tendency Survey, October 2026; Confidence Indicators, October 2026. Statistics Finland: Consumer Confidence, October 2026.)
The working-day-adjusted turnover of Finnish retail trade grew by 4.8 percent in September compared to the previous year, and the volume of sales increased by 4.2 percent. The cumulative working-day-adjusted turnover of retail trade in January–September of 2026 increased by 3.7 percent while the volume of sales grew by 3.2 percent. (Statistics Finland: Turnover of Trade, September 2026, preview.)