Interim Report Q2/2026, 13 August 2026:
The following outlook information is based on materials published by the Confederation of Finnish Industries EK and Statistics Finland.
The development of the global economy remained highly uncertain during the early summer. Global economic forecasts depend heavily on the duration of the war in Iran. Inflation is predicted to rise, and there is pressure to increase interest rates over the coming months. Uncertainty in equity markets has also increased in recent times. In the most favorable scenarios, the global economy would still grow by approximately 3 percent in 2026, but there are signs that forecasts may need to be revised downward. Among the major economic regions, the figures are the weakest in Europe, where growth is estimated to be less than 1 percent this year.
The economic situation of Finnish companies remains weaker than average, although the situation has continued to strengthen during the early summer. The outlook for the coming months has brightened in all of the main sectors of the economy, but the economic outlook involves considerable uncertainty and many industries continue to suffer from weak demand. In July, the confidence indicator for the retail trade was above the long-term average. In the retail trade, the economic situation improved only slightly in the early summer of 2026. Sales volumes are rising, but growth is constrained by broadly subdued demand. However, sales expectations for the coming months are positive. Although consumer confidence has strengthened year-on-year, it remained fairly weak in July 2026. Consumer estimates concerning the current state of their personal finances improved slightly, but remained at a low level. Consumers considered the timing for purchasing durable goods to still be very unfavorable, their spending intentions deteriorated further, and their views concerning unemployment remained bleak. However, consumers’ expectations concerning the development of their personal finances and the Finnish economy over the next year improved further to a slight extent and were on a par with the long-term average.
(Confederation of Finnish Industries EK: Business Tendency Survey, July 2026; Confidence Indicators, July 2026. Statistics Finland: Consumer Confidence, July 2026.)
The working-day-adjusted turnover of Finnish retail trade grew by 2.9 percent in June compared to the previous year, and the volume of sales increased by 2.3 percent. The cumulative working-day-adjusted turnover of retail trade in January–June of 2026 increased by 3.9 percent while the volume of sales grew by 3.4 percent. (Statistics Finland: Turnover of Trade, June 2026, preview.)