Interim Report 1–9/2022, 2 November 2022
The following outlook information is based on materials published by the Confederation of Finnish Industries EK and Statistics Finland.
The growth estimates for the world economy have declined further during the fall. Despite the exceptional level of uncertainty, the estimates for economic development in main economic areas remain positive and the world economy in 2022 is estimated to grow at a rate of some three percent. The growth is estimated to be slowest in Europe. The growth outlook is affected by, among other things, increased inflation, the uncertainties related to energy prices, Russia’s war against Ukraine, the decreasing confidence of households and the restrictions related to the coronavirus pandemic situation in China.
The economic outlook for Finland and expectations for the future have further darkened and the Finnish economy is estimated to be in recession. In October, the confidence indicator for the retail trade strengthened slightly but is clearly below the beginning of the year and the long-term average. Sales declined slightly, inventories grew and sales expectations for the coming months are pessimistic. Consumer confidence continued to decrease and was at an all-time low in the September-October period. While expectations for personal finances improved slightly, both estimates of the current state of personal finances as well as expectations for the future were very weak. Expectations for Finland’s economy were at an all-time low and both the expectations for inflation as well as the expectations for its future development were at an all-time high.
(Confederation of Finnish Industries EK: Business Tendency Survey, October 2022; Confidence Indicators, October 2022. Statistics Finland: Consumer Confidence, October 2022).
The working-day-adjusted turnover of Finnish retail trade in September grew by 5.3 percent on the previous year. The volume of sales was down by 3.6 percent. The cumulative working-day-adjusted turnover of retail trade in the January-September period rose by 3.6 percent but the volume of sales decreased by 3.3 percent.
(Statistics Finland: Turnover of Trade, retail trade flash estimate, September 2022).